Futures Trading Signals

Distribution selling in stocks while gold shines

admin — Fri, 28 Jan 2011 20:10:15 +0000

Today the dollar is breaking to the upside and with the broad market trading at resistance (SP500) it has caused a very sharp sell off today which is still unfolding.

During market tops and bottoms investments tend to go every which way as fear and greed hit the market and everyone just buying and selling what they think is the right thing to do at the time. This causes mixed signals which is why gold is rallying with the dollar in a big way and bond prices are rising.

This is an emotional day for traders and investors around the world and we can see it in the selling of the SP500 today. I know many of you started taking small short positions the past couple days and this morning from my short term analysis and it is paying off now. That being said the market internals are showing short term oversold conditions and both the SP500 and Dow are still in an uptrend but showing distribution selling. Last January we had this same price action and the very next day the market bounced straight back up to the highs. While I am bearish on the market, I do think a bounce is very likely and I expect the pomo to try and help the market later today so it’s not such a blood bath today for stocks… only time will tell.

Below is chart with what I am seeing and thinking..

Chris Vermeulen
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

How to Find Low Risk SP500, Gold & Oil ETF Setups

admin — Sun, 01 Aug 2010 18:54:57 +0000

As we all know there is an unlimited amount of ways to trade the financial markets. Each person sees the market in a different way, has different skill sets, trading experience and risk tolerance levels. While some individuals create and use complete systems to make money there are some very basic trading strategies which still work well and require nothing more than basic charting, patience and a little money management.

Let me explain:

SPY – SP500 Index Trading Fund

You can clearly see the longer term trend which is down (blue trendine). But from simply drawing a couple trendlines and looking at the MACD (momentum) indicator you can see there is a possible trend reversal taking place. So far the SPY has broken out of its down trendline with a 4 day pop, and it’s now pulled back down to test support. A close below the trend line or the 50MA would be the exit points if the market did start to go south.

The SP500 is still stuck under major resistance, its 200 day moving average. But is trading above key support levels (20MA, 50MA and Trendline). I can feel the tension in the market between traders and we are about to see a big move once a breakout to the upside or down side is established. At this time its best to be in cash or have a small position with a protective stop in place. Once a trend starts there should be some low risk entry points along the way. If we see a strong reversal to the upside On Monday or Tuesday I would expect big buyers would step in to catch this new trend up.

GLD – Gold ETF Trading Fund

Looking at the price of gold we can see the trend is still down along with the momentum. A breakout would be the first step towards a possible entry point but I prefer to wait for a pullback after the breakout has taken place. Once we get a test of support I look to enter a position once there is a strong reversal candle to the upside. From there I draw a new support trend line from the previous low and connect it to the new pivot low (bottom of reversal candle). That becomes my new protective stop.

Gold still has some work to do before I would even be interested in taking a long position for a swing trade. But on a short term time frame (intraday charts) gold looks to be forming a low risk setup which I hope unfolds for my subscribers this week.

USO – Crude Oil Trading Fund

Oil has been trading in a large bearish pennant for the past 2 months and it is nearing the apex of this pattern. The longer term picture of oil is bearish but the most recent dotted trend line and the 20/50MA crossover is signaling some strength. Also the momentum for oil is positive and that helps support the price also. Again if this was to breakout to the upside I would wait for a low volume pullback to test the breakout level, then enter on a reversal back up.

Oil is one of the more challenging commodities to trade because it is affected by the US Dollar, Political Events, and Weather. In short, even if you had the analysis and timing correct there are other factors which move the price of oil on a regular basis that could quickly turn the trade against you. That being said, keep trades small when trading oil.

How to Find Low Risk Trading Setups:

In short, trading can be complex, simple or somewhere in between. You can spend 14 hours or 20 minutes a day analyzing it depending on what investments you trade, whether you’re trading full time or just checking up on longer term investments.

This analysis and basic strategy shown above can be profitable if followed correctly and works for stocks, commodities and indexes. It’s just to show how simple one can swing trade the market using very basic analysis. Personally I use a much more complex strategy incorporating 15+ other data points which allows for precise entry and exit points.

If you would like to Get My Low Risk Trading Signals visit my services at:
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com – ETF Trading – Index, Sectors & Commodities
www.FuturesTradingSignals.com – Futures & ETF Trading – Index & Commodities

Chris Vermeulen

GET MY FREE WEEKLY TRADING REPORTS DELIVERED TO YOUR INBOX!

Is Gold About To Rocket and SP500 Tank Video

admin — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 23:42:38 +0000

Last week we saw stocks move sharply higher as traders started to cover their short position which added fuel to an already oversold market ready to bounce. Overall volume was not that strong on the move up which is a bearish sign. On Friday afternoon we saw the SP500 continue to move into the $1075 resistance level on very light volume. This indicates to me that buyers are not willing to pay these higher prices because the market has moved up so quickly and the fact that it’s trading at a resistance level.

I feel the market will gap higher on Monday just like we say on June 20/21 deep into a resistance level and the big money will short the pop sending it sharply lower.

Gold looks to be shifting its momentum from a down trend to an uptrend. It’s forming a reverse head & shoulders pattern which is shown in the video posted below.

Here is My Technical Trading Report Video Covering:

- Gold
- US Dollar
- SP500
- Market Internals
- On Balance Volume

iPhone/iPad Video Format: Click Here

Weekend Conclusion:

In short is looks as thought the market is at a critical pivot point. We could see prices stall out here and continue the down trend or see strong buying step in sending prices higher in the equities market. We need to wait and see what type of price action unfolds in the coming days.

If you would like to receive my trading alerts and education checkout my service at www.FuturesTradingSignals.com or my swing trading service at www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen

Dollar, Gold, Oil and the SP500’s Mid-Week Trading Video

admin — Thu, 24 Jun 2010 01:02:34 +0000

It’s been a crazy week for gold, oil and the SP500 again…. Since the market top in April we have seen large moves almost EVERY day in the market. I would say this is one of the toughest times for traders as you must be very quick to enter and exit if you want to lock in any profits. Good news is that things should start to smooth out in the next week or so if stock kick into rally mode.

Below is a quick video I did for you showing how I see the market, what I think is about to do and what to be aware of. I recommend you Gold Bugs skip over this report because on Sunday I wrote about how gold kept making new highs this year and how prices were about to drop again. And it was only a few minutes after I sent that report out before the emails started to flood my inbox from individuals around the world telling me how wrong I was saying gold is about to sell off. I knew gold was a crowded trade but not to the point that people are willing to fight you just because you mention its looking ready for a correction…. Which is actually a good thing for gold to do right now….

To be honest I’m still in aw about how mean and rude some people can be when all I am trying to do is help educate and help everyone see the market from a technical point of view without any bias… Thank goodness I’m a positive thinker and find most things funny or can put a positive spin on things like seeing gold drop $35 so far this week 

Anyway… here is my video recap of this weeks price action.

Video Recap for those who don’t want to watch the full 8 minutes:

- Gold still looks bullish, but on the edge of a Very Sharp Correction
- Oil looks about ready to make a run higher
- US Dollar looks to be forming a Head & Shoulders Reversal pattern
- SP500 is at a critical point Rally or Crash
- If the US Dollar drops it should trigger higher gold, oil and stocks
- We are entering earning season and stocks tend to rally into the news

Click To View Video:

http://www.futurestradingsignals.com/trading-education/gold-oil-us-dollar-sp500-technical-trading-video/

Chris Vermeulen
www.FuturesTradingSignals.com
www.TheGoldAndOilGuy.com

Take A Look At How I Can Help You Learn & Trade:

A Colorful View on SPX, Gold & Oil

admin — Thu, 17 Jun 2010 02:23:05 +0000

June 16, 2010 It’s been a bright week so far for stocks and commodities. It appears that the down trend could have ended as of yesterday (Tuesday June 15th). In this mid-week report I figured I would bring back the 80’s colors to see if I can spice things up!

Below are some charts I did showing my current views on the market. You may want to put on your hyper color shirt, sunglasses and zinc when viewing them in order to get into the zone… lol

SPX – S&P500 Index Exchange Traded Fund – Daily Chart

I’ll keep this short and sweet here are the main points.

Moving Averages crossed over this week and when we see this a trend reversal generally occurs. That being said it is best to wait for the moving averages to cluster which means we need a pullback or sideways movement for a few days. I feel this is very likely to happen.

NYSE Buying Spikes have returned! We saw these during the previous bottom back in February. As the market continues to trend higher and mature these volume spikes tend to increase also.

Long Term Cycle has bottomed and should start to rise this week. As we can see from the February bottom the cycle was also bottoming which is very bullish for the index.

We Are Here shows where I think we are currently trading. The market is over bought right now and I feel a quick pullback or sideways move is needed before we see a continued move up.

Here is my Pre-Market Trading Video & Squawk Box Recording for today if you want to see my charts as of this morning: http://www.futurestradingsignals.com/trading-education/june-16th-market-reports/

Gold Futures – Daily Chart

Gold is trading in a tight wedge at the moment. The long term picture is pointing to higher prices but I feel there is a good change of one last drop which should shake out a bunch of traders before rocketing upwards. August and September are good months for gold to move up and if you have been following the market as long as I have then you know patterns and prices can drag out much longer than we anticipate. So as much as the chart of gold looks like an imminent breakout is about to occur, it could still be a few months way. And to be honest that’s how the market works…. If it doesn’t shake you out, it will wear you out!

Crude Oil Futures – Daily Chart

Oil is trading a key pivot point and also looks to have formed a possible bear flag. At the moment I am neutral on oil, it’s a 50/50 guess as to which way it will go, so I am just watching for now… But I have pointed out some key resistance and support levels for those with oil positions… This small chart makes it look like I put a ling at ever $2 but if you look closer some are above and below those even numbers.

Mid-Week Stock and Commodity Wrap Up:

In short, I think the market is on the verge of another rally which is very exciting since we cashed out in late April before the market had the big sell off. It will be nice to put some long term plays to work so we are not so dependent on the short intraday plays which last 1-2 days because of the extreme volatility in the market.

I figure we will see stocks and gold move up together but I’m not really sure about oil at this point… If oil does not move up then the market will have limited up side and instead of a new bull market rally to new 2010 highs we could just see move up to test near the April high. Then it could roll over and start heading back down triggering much larger sell off as we enter another bear market. All that being said… it looks to be a couple months away still and a lot can happen in that time. As a market technician I take each chart one day at a time.

If you would like to learn my intraday and swing trades along with my trading signals checkout my website: www.FuturesTradingSignals.com C

hris Vermeulen

Take A Close Look At What I Offer:

Safe Havens are Shining but are Equities about to Rocket Higher?

admin — Sun, 06 Jun 2010 17:07:34 +0000

Sunday June 6th 2010
It was another extremely volatile week sharp rallies followed by sharp sell offs. Fear is in no doubt controlling the market. The bulls and bears continue to battle it out. The charts below cover some important trends and market internals I pay attention to on a daily basis.

US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

The past two months the dollar as been in rally mode. The last 14 days we have seen a large bullish pennant form and this pattern typically marks the half way point for the current tend. The measured move for the USD is pointing to 93 over the next few months.

Gold Futures Prices – Daily Chart

Gold as we all know is seen as the major safe haven and the price per ounce has been steadily climbing. Friday we saw the major indexes sell down very hard but both the dollar and gold posted some solid gains. Gold does looks as though it needs some time to digest the recent move higher and this could take a week or two before anything exciting happens but I am on the lookout for low risk setups.

VIX – Volatility Index – 60 Minute Chart

This index measures the fear in the market. When fear is high and everyone is selling their positions we see the VIX jump in price. Over the past month we can see a possible Head & Shoulders pattern forming. If this pattern unfolds like it should then we will see the price of equities bottom in the coming week with the VIX dropping below the blue neckline. The old saying is “When the VIX is High is time to Buy, when the VIX is low its time to Go”.

Put Call Ration – 60 Minute Chart

In short, when the put/call ration is over 1.00 then there are more traders/investors buying Put Options than Call Options. Put options are when people are buying leverage to take advantage of lower prices. My thought/opinion about this is when more people are trading with leverage anticipating lower prices, I figure they have sold all their long positions and are now using leverage to profit from lower prices. Well if the majority of individuals have sold everything then in reality there should not be much left to be sold… So I feel this correction which started in April is almost finished.

NYSE Advance/Decline Line – 60 Minute Chart

This is one of my favorite charts to look at. While there are several indicators, market internals and technical analysis needed to clearly determine if the market is currently overbought or oversold, this chart is one that can help give you a good idea if you should be looking to buy, short or just stay in cash for the time being.

SP500 Futures Prices- 2 Hour Chart

The SP500 has been up and down like a yo-yo with some very dramatic moves. Up 2+% day down 2+% the next… very sharp and powerful moves can be both every profitable or costly if not traded correctly. Last week we caught a nice 2% gain in less than 24 hours which was an exciting trade. It looked at though the market was about to breakout to the upside and possibly reach the 1150 level but early Friday morning there were rumors about some Euro bank having serious problems and that was just enough to cause a domino effect sending the market lower throughout the entire session closing on a very strong negative note for the day/week.

That being said the market internals are indicating that equities are oversold at these current prices and a bounce is due any time. With the panic selling on the NYSE Friday reaching 119 sell orders for every 1 buy order I think we will see some follow through next week with lower prices, then a rebound once investors finish selling everything they own at which point we will be looking to get involved again.

Weekly Trading Conclusion:

In short, money continues to flow into the safe havens (Gold & US Dollar). The major indices are showing extreme panic selling and look ready to in the next few days. There is a possibility that the market could break down and start another major leg lower which is a big concern to me. I will be glued to the market internals and support levels for the major commodities and equity sectors in hopes to catch the bottom or to avoid another melt down.

If you would like to receive my Daily Pre-Market Videos and Trading Alerts please checkout my website at: www.FuturesTradingSignals.com

Chris Vermeulen

Get My Free Weekly Technical Updates Free Below:

Finding Gold & SP500 Low Risk Setups

admin — Thu, 03 Jun 2010 01:05:31 +0000

June 2nd 2010
It’s been a very exciting week so far for gold and SP500 traders as we take advantage of mass crowd behavior. Trading against the masses can be very profitable during certain situations but more times than not it’s a great way to lose money which is why I focus on taking the opposite side of these moves.

This week I decided to do the mid week report in a video format which I think not only saves everyone time but also allows me to get more information over to you. The video shows a low risk gold setup and a low risk SP500 trading setup which I think will open your eyes to some new things.

Last week we took a long position in gold at $1180-85 level buying near the bottom as investors panicked out of their positions. Using market internals, sentiment readings and my own special blend of technical analysis to find these low risk setups which pack a powerful punch when traded correctly.

The chart below shows gold from its bull market in 2009 right through to the current rally, which is making us some decent money. While I am bullish on gold and feel it will eventually reach $1400 per ounce I do think there will be several more opportunities to cash in on gold’s price action as this rally matures… I explain more in the video below.

Gold & SP500 Low Risk Trading Setups

Click Here to View the Video: http://www.futurestradingsignals.com/trading-education/gold-and-es-futures-trading-video/

Mid-Week Low Risk Gold & SP500 Trading Conclusion:

I hope you enjoyed the video as I showed you some important trading tools for helping to trade extreme conditions in the market. As my buddy from ActiveTradingPartners.com always says “Buy when they Cry, Sell when the Yell” which is exactly what needs to be done in order to profit from the market month after month.

If you would like to get my Low Risk yet Powerful Trading Alerts be sure to checkout my services at www.TheTechnicalTraders.com

Chris Vermeulen

Friday Gold & SP500 Market Meltdown Opportunity

admin — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 20:39:42 +0000

It’s been a great week for traders who have been watching gold and the indexed become more and more overbought on the intraday charts who waited to take advantage of the reversal which unfolded today.

I have been talking about this move for several weeks just waiting for the market to reach the tipping point as this type of setup pays very well and today was the first day of possible larger correction.

Below are two videos showing today’s price action. The first video is the calm before the storm…

The second video shows the calm after the first thunder head passed over the market.

Video #1 – Morning Gold & SP500 Intraday Analysis and Setups:

Can’t See the Video Click Here: http://www.futurestradingsignals.com/trading-education/morning-low-risk-trade-setup/

Video #2 – Afternoon Trading Opportunity:

Can’t see the video click here: http://www.futurestradingsignals.com/trading-education/gold-and-es-mini-futures-day-trade/

Some words from the Chat Room for Today’s Trade:

Steve – One of the best of my life!!!
Airgar – Chris, I don’t know exactly how you do it, but that was very impressive!
Russ – Vodka & coke tonight! Very Nice !:P

Gold & SP500 Trading Conclusion:

As you can see from the two videos above, there is big money in the market when one uses a proven trading strategy along with strict risk and money management. Several traders pocketed a few thousand dollars today on this drop. My hybrid of intraday and swing trading gets the best of both worlds in today market conditions keeping us active enough to make consistent gains each month while not having to sit at the computer every day.

If you are interested in becoming part of this exciting trading service which focuses on traders who want to become part of a tight community of like minded traders, learn from my daily videos, live chat room with only 5-7 trades per month on low risk yet high return trades then please checkout my service new service: www.FuturesTradingSignals.com

Chris Vermeulen